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Slaughter is at annual highs, while retail demand for fresh pork has yet to kick in. Ham prices have eased as Christmas orders have been filled.
Slaughter numbers should be near the highest levels for the year and will be at least 100k head/week lower in Jan/Feb. This should bolster prices for some fresh pork items, such as loins and butts.
Tight supply remains despite packers ramping up slaughter ahead of the upcoming holidays.
Fresh pork prices continue to be pressured lower due to increased competition from chicken breasts at retail and seasonal decline in demand.
Slaughter is down almost 5% from 2019, exports to Mexico are record high, turkey prices are record high and cold storage inventory is down double digits. Expect ham prices to remain firm through the holidays this year.
Hog breeding herd as of September 1 was estimated down from the previous quarter as well as 0.6% lower than a year ago. The pig crop through next Feb is expected to decline y/y, suggesting no supply growth through next summer.
The highest hog slaughter since early January and the increase in supply pressured pork prices lower overall, with retail product seeing the biggest impact.
Pork prices are stabilizing following Labor Day weekend disruptions.
Due to the seasonal increase in supply, a slowdown in export sales and inventory depletion, prices collapsed far more quickly than expected.
Pork market is hot and cash hog prices are near record levels, but does that warrant current fall premiums?
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