Pork Checkoff Industry News

Futures have rallied the last two weeks as market participants now expect Q4 production to be less than previously thought. USDA ‘Hogs and Pigs’ survey suggested Sep-Nov slaughter could be up as much as 4% y/y. Instead slaughter since September 1 has been almost unchanged.

Our estimates are that the breeding herd on September 1 was down 2.5% from a year ago. The inventory of market hogs this fall should be adequate based on the pig crop last spring. Supply growth will be limited this winter and next spring as productivity is expected to return to trend and smaller herd limits farrowings.

Hog slaughter beat estimates at +2.3 million head, +3.6% above year ago levels. Expectations are for slaughter to ramp up in the coming weeks. Last year weekly slaughter between mid-September and early October averaged 2.57m head/wk. Given current growth trends, we could see weekly slaughter at or above 2.6 million in the coming weeks.

USDA thinks pork production in 2025 will increase 1.7% from a year ago. Lower feed costs should help bolster production, but much will depend on the breeding herd in September and December as productivity rate returns to long term trend.

Weather disruptions resulted in lower slaughter early last week. However, with supply expected to recover this coming week, prices came under significant pressure last Thursday and Friday.

Ham prices have rocketed higher as market was once again reminded of the seasonality of supply during this time of year. Big orders to Mexico and other orders at the end of June, lower slaughter and processors returning to full production have resulted in a very tight spot market. Sharply higher prices in US and Mexico may impact sales in August, however.

Wholesale pork prices showed some improvement towards the end of the week, mostly due to sharply higher ham prices. Demand from Mexico has been better than expected as hog values there continue to trade well above U.S. equivalent.

USDA inventory survey painted a picture of ample supply in the near term but lower production expected this winter and next spring.

Hog futures turned higher at the end of last week as belly prices rebounded and speculation that cutout could start to see some support going into the 4th of July holiday and a 4-day weekend.

Hog futures remain under pressure on uncertainty about outlook of processing items (hams, bellies, trim) this summer. Belly market appears to have more risk given slowdown in foodservice sales. Lack of frozen inventory continues to impact export markets, however.