Steiner and Company produces the Profit Maximizer report on behalf of National Pork Board based on information we believe is accurate and reliable. However neither NPB nor Steiner and Company warrants or guarantees the accuracy of or accepts any liability for the data, opinions or recommendations expressed.

Highlights

  • Spring and summer lean hog futures have lost momentum as the feared “marketing hole” has not materialized. Hog slaughter since early March is running slightly above last year and carcass weights remain steady, keeping pork supplies adequate and the pork cutout stuck below $100/cwt.
  • Despite recent weakness, we still see upside risk for pork prices into summer if slaughter falls below 2.4 million head/week and grilling demand accelerates with warmer weather and consumers trading down from expensive beef.
  • Ham markets have underperformed seasonal expectations, pressured by sluggish domestic foodservice demand, especially QSR traffic, even though exports to Mexico remain robust.
  • Gas prices and broader consumer spending pressure are key risks for protein demand this summer, particularly for processing items like hams, bellies, and trim.
  • Pork inventories and price trends remain mixed by cut. Ham cold storage stocks are up 37.5% y/y, helping weigh on prices, while ribs, butts, and several beef grinding items continue to trade well above year ago levels.

Full Report

Lean hog futures have been trending lower since early March and spring/summer contracts are back to where they were at the start of the year. In early 2026, speculation about disease losses and the potential for a marketing hole in the spring resulted in significant premiums built in the spring and summer contracts. So far, the marketing hole has yet to materialize. Hog slaughter in the last four weeks has averaged 2.46M, 1.4% higher than a year ago. Since the first week of March, hog slaughter has been 24.6 million head, 160k head (+0.7%) higher than a year ago. Hog carcass weights have been steady for the past three months and last week were 1.1% higher than last year. With adequate supply (+1.8% y/y) and stable demand, pork prices have been range bound. The pork cutout steadily improved between early January and early March, breaking above $100/cwt. A simple linear trend based on prices in Jan/Feb put June values at over $110/cwt. But we are nearing the end of April, and the value of the pork cutout is still hovering below $100/cwt.

As with baseball, hope springs eternal in the pork market. At the start of the year, talk of tight supplies and effect of high beef prices on demand for other proteins had spec money chasing the market higher. Now that spring is here and pork loin prices are stuck in place despite record ground beef prices, it is no wonder that spec money has been cutting back some of its net long position.

Where does the market go from here? If the USDA ‘Hogs and Pigs’ survey is to be believed, weekly hog slaughter between now and 4th of July should be about the same as last year. So far, the slaughter numbers have not deviated much from the March survey so we have no reason to question them, but we may if slaughter remains above 2.4 million in the second half of May. Full weekly hog slaughter in late May and June of 2025 averaged 2.367 million (non holiday). For reference, we have included where the value of the various pork primals was last week (weekly average) and the % change in the value of the cutout and primals between early May and second week of June (expiration of the June contract). Last year we saw a double digit increase in price across all primals as slaughter declined under 2.4 million. At this point we still think price risk for late spring and summer remains skewed to the upside, especially as warm weather, consumers looking for value and start of the grilling season kicks retail demand in high gear.

Processing Items Lag the Seasonal. Will That Continue?

Rising gas prices have started to significantly impact consumer disposable incomes and there is growing concern about the effect this will have on protein demand in late spring and summer. So far price performance of hams, bellies and, to a lesser extent trim, has been less robust than expected. We touched on bellies on Monday so today we’ll look more into the ham market and what has and has not happened yet.

For some perspective, the ham primal accounts for a quarter of the carcass yield. So, price moves in hams tend to have a more significant impact on the value of the cutout, and consequently hog prices, than say moves in the price of ribs. To say that the ham market to this point has been unsteady would be an understatement. Between the end of March and today, the value of the primal has been as low as $70.46 (March 26) to as high as $96.18 (April 20). Last week, USDA quoted the value of the ham primal at $80.33/cwt, $6/cwt (-7%) lower than a year ago. Mexico buys about a third of all US hams so it has an outsize impact. But we cannot lay the blame for the softer ham prices at the feet of exports. In the four weeks ending May 1, export shipments to Mexico were reportedly 56% higher than a year ago. Between the lower price of hams and the stronger Mexican peso, US hams are on sale and Mexican buyers are grabbing as much as they can.

Foodservice sales, especially sales at quick service restaurants, have been particularly sluggish. Results at retail deli are also not particularly encouraging either. The result of the slowdown in domestic sales can be seen in the higher volume of #23-27 hams packers are pushing in the spot market. We saw this last year too but spot availability then quickly declined once slaughter dropped under 2.4 million head/wk. We have yet to see the pullback in slaughter and the timing will be critical.

The other factor to watch are hog weights, which have yet to seasonally decline. The chart above looks a bit messy with all the colors, but it is simply meant to illustrate how prices tend to move during the May-August period when both slaughter and weights decline. The percentages show how the price in each week compares to the average of the four month period. The long run average says that prices in early May are about 10% below the period average. Based on the long run average, then average for the period would be $91/cwt, with price highs in July and early August around $100. But, in the last four years, ham prices during late June and especially July have seen a much bigger price swing relative to the four month average. And the short supply months are still ahead of us.

Price Chart

Forecasts

Steiner Consulting Group produces the National Pork Board newsletter based on information we believe is accurate and reliable. However, neither NPB nor Steiner and Company warrants or guarantees the accuracy of or accepts any liability for the data, opinions or recommendations expressed.