Processing Items Stumble While Fresh Pork Rally Picks Up Steam

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Will Ham and Belly Prices Rebound in the Summer?

The chart below shows the trajectory in the July Lean Hog futures contract between April and the time the contract expires in mid July. In the previous two years, July hogs traded in very different ways. In 2024, there was a lot of optimism about prices in the spring but higher than expected supply and underwhelming demand caused prices to steadily erode. By the time the July 2024 contract expired, it was 18% lower than in early April. In 2025, the opposite happened. Maybe because of the low prices the year before or uncertainty about demand, end users came into the spring expecting relatively stable prices. Instead, a shortfall in supply, partly due to disease losses and the impact of high beef prices, caused prices to rocket higher. By mid July 2025, the hog contract was 18% higher than in early April.

Currently futures are at a crossroads. From a supply perspective, slaughter should be closer to 2025 than 2024. The combination of a smaller herd and continued disease losses means that weekly hog slaughter in June and July should be below 2.4 million head/week. Hog carcass weights, which are currently running about 1.2% above last year should also drift lower as temps climb over 90 degrees in the Midwest. However, the demand side appears to be more problematic, especially when it comes to foodservice demand. Overall, beef prices are high, but prices for high-value cuts, with more exposure to foodservice, have failed to keep up with the broader index.

Chicken breast prices are ubiquitous at foodservice and in the last six weeks have been trending counter seasonally lower. Should we then be surprised that bellies and hams, which have more foodservice exposure than other pork cuts, have been weaker than expected?

Our current forecast calls for higher ham and belly prices in late spring and summer. However, prices are expected to be lower than a year ago, in large part because of the ongoing weakness in demand for these two key items.

Despite Double-Digit Gains for Beef, April Retail Protein Prices are Only Modestly Higher

The index tracking the price of meat, poultry, fish and eggs at retail was up only 1.5% vs. a year ago. Beef prices remain an ongoing concern and the retail index for all beef items in April was 14.8% higher than a year ago. But, as much as some think there is their right to eat inexpensive beef, there are other meat options out there. The price index for whole broilers in April was 1.8% lower than a year ago. The price of chicken parts was slightly lower than a year ago. Interestingly, despite a very stable wholesale market for pork loins, the price index for pork chops in April was 4.3% higher than a year ago. Maybe with the expensive ground beef in the meat case, retailers probably figured they’d bolster their pork margins a bit. Ham price index was about unchanged, however, and bacon was up only 1.5% y/y.

Prices for food consumed away from home continue to increase and in April the index tracking them was up 3.6% vs. a year ago. Prices are increasing at a slower rate, largely due to a slowdown in price gains for food consumed at full service restaurants. Prices at those establishments in April were up 3.8% y/y compared to a 4.9% rate at the end of 2025. Fast food prices up 3.2%.

Price Chart

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