Profit Maximizer Reports
The Profit Maximizer is a biweekly report that provides insights and analysis on current pork markets.
Steiner and Company produces the National Pork Board newsletter based on information we believe is accurate and reliable. However neither NPB nor Steiner and Company warrants or guarantees the accuracy of or accepts any liability for the data, opinions or recommendations expressed.
Export Slowdown Highlights Downside Risk for Pork and Hog Values This Fall
August 2, 2021
• U.S. hog prices are currently significantly above hog prices in the EU and Canada, starting to impact demand for U.S. pork in the world market. China hog values are down as much as 60% from their peak, limiting demand in that market.
• Hog slaughter should be near annual lows, with slaughter last week a little over 2.3 million head. Scheduled maintenance work, summer holidays and seasonal decline in hog supplies have all contributed to the decline. However, we think by late August weekly slaughter will gain about 100,000 head and by early October it will be 300,000 head higher than this week.
• Light slaughter continues to keep product markets tight. Processors are caught short, in part because they have smaller freezer stocks but also because demand from retail and foodservice remains strong. Prices for processing items, bellies, hams, trim, should be at annual highs.
• Packers recognize the supply increase that is coming and were more aggressive in selling to export last week, with sales to Mexico topping 25,000 MT. However, sales to Asian markets remain weak, which may weigh on prices in the fall.
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