Short and Medium Term Outlook for Pork Prices

Steiner and Company produces the Profit Maximizer report on behalf of National Pork Board based on information we believe is accurate and reliable. However neither NPB nor Steiner and Company warrants or guarantees the accuracy of or accepts any liability for the data, opinions or recommendations expressed.

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Every three months we update our long-term price and supply projections for all four meat protein species. We have decided to share the commentary included in the executive summary.  Below are our projections for pork production in 2025 and 2025.

Key Takeaways

Limited Supply Growth: Pork production is forecast to rise just 0.4% in 2025, with constrained growth driven by a smaller breeding herd, modest productivity gains, and limited expansion incentives despite lower feed costs.

Export Uncertainty: Trade tensions and rising tariffs, especially with China, are weighing on export prospects. While China is a key buyer of U.S. variety meats, overall exports are expected to decline slightly in 2025 and rise only 2.2% in 2026.

Demand Challenges: Despite tight supply, fresh pork prices are down sharply year-over-year. Pork struggles in foodservice compared to beef and chicken, and retail consumers are quick to trade down to cheaper alternatives.

Outlook: Without stronger domestic demand or improved export access, pork production is expected to grow roughly in line with U.S. population growth through 2026.

Perspective

Pork supply growth is expected to remain limited in 2025, a consequence of decisions made in 2023 and 2024. Limited domestic demand expansion and persistent uncertainty surrounding export demand are likely to keep supply growth in check through 2026 as well. The hog breeding herd is a key indicator of future supply potential. As of March 1, the breeding herd was reported at 5.980 million head, down 0.6% from the previous year and the lowest inventory since March 2016. Sow inventory has declined 8.7% since December 2019, and we believe it is unlikely that breeding stock numbers will increase in the near term.

Feed costs have eased, which should help bolster producer returns. However, rising U.S. tariffs and the threat of a full-blown trade war with China are growing concerns. In 2024, China accounted for about 6% of total U.S. pork exports but purchased over 60% of all U.S. pork variety meats. While a resolution to trade tensions could potentially reopen that channel, we do not consider that a baseline scenario. At the start of the year, we anticipated a trade war might be averted — and while that proved true for Mexico and Canada, trade with other markets has been more restricted. Our current forecast projects pork exports will be slightly lower year-over-year in 2025, with a modest 2.2% increase expected in 2026.

Pork production is forecast to increase just 0.4% in 2025. Slaughter in Q1 was down 2.3%, partly due to one fewer slaughter day, while average weights were up 0.4%. We expect production to rise 0.5% in Q2 and 1.5% in the second half of the year. Producers have managed modest growth through productivity gains — pigs per litter were up 1.1% last winter and are expected to rise about 1.2% this spring and summer. Lower feed costs and limited hog supply growth have also encouraged producers to feed hogs to heavier weights, with weights for producer-owned barrows and gilts up roughly 1% in the first four months of the year.

Demand remains a persistent challenge: Fresh pork prices — including butts, loins, and picnics — are currently down double digits from last year, despite limited supply growth and sharply higher prices for competing proteins. Pork continues to lag other proteins for two key reasons: it has a smaller footprint in foodservice compared to chicken and beef, and retail consumers are more likely to trade down to alternative options. Until producers find ways to meaningfully boost domestic demand — and with export prospects still uncertain — we expect pork production to grow only at the pace of population growth.

Price Outlook

Our current forecast for hog values in 2025 is almost unchanged from what we presented at the start of the year, averaging $88/cwt.  The cutout is expected to average $97/cwt, 1.2% higher than last year and slightly lower than the $99/cwt forecast at the start of the year.  Expectations are for supply growth to remain limited and we do not expect a significant disruption in exports to key markets.  Hence our forecast is for the pork cutout in 2026 to increase 3% y/y, largely in line with broader inflation trends.

Price Chart

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