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By the Numbers: September 2026 Data Summary 

Hosted by Ohio pork producer and National Pork Board member Jess Stevens, the NPB webinar features an in-depth analysis by Lee Schulz, chief economist at EA Risk. Reviewing the September 2026 USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service, Agricultural Statistics Board, he noted the total U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs sat at 74.302 million head, representing a 1.5% decrease compared to September 2025 levels.

The size of the kept for breeding category in the report anchors expectations for supplies in the medium to longer term. The U.S. breeding herd contracted to 5.875 million head, down 1.0% year-over-year. Schulz noted that this marks the smallest September U.S. breeding herd since 2013. Meanwhile, the total market hog inventory experienced a 1.5% decline from a year ago, dropping to 68.427 million head.

Market Hog Inventories Signal Tighter Fall and Winter Supplies

When reviewing the market hog inventory across weight categories, Schulz pointed out consistent year-over-year contractions across every category, outlining upcoming expected slaughter trends through early 2027:

  • 180 lbs and over: Down 1.6% compared to September 1, 2025, at 12.443 million head, and supplying harvest volumes for September through mid-October 2026.
  • 120 to 179 lbs: Down 1.5% at 14.142 million head and expected to be marketed mid-October through mid-November.
  • 50 to 119 lbs: Down 1.5% at 19.976 million head and anticipated for slaughter mid-November through December.
  • Under 50 lbs: Down 1.6% at 21.866 million head and will come to market in January and February 2027.

Carcass weight data in the National Daily Direct Hog Prior Day Report – Average Net Price and Weight Distribution published by USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service indicates that hog marketings remain current, with no buildup of heavy hogs that would otherwise disrupt regular marketing schedules.

Record Litter Rates Offset a Smaller Breeding Herd

Despite a shrinking breeding herd, on-farm productivity gains continue to buffer total pig supply. Sows farrowed during the June through August quarter fell by 2.7% year-over-year. However, this drop was cushioned by a record-breaking 11.96 pigs saved per litter, a 1.2% year-over-year gain that represents the highest national litter rate ever recorded for any quarter.

This surge in productivity limited the June through August 2026 pig crop decline to 1.5% year-over-year, totaling 34.508 million head. Looking ahead, sow farrowing intentions for September through November are estimated to be down 1.8% year-over-year. While intentions for December 2026 through February 2027 are up 2.1% against a revised lower prior-year baseline, Schulz highlighted that this would still represent a 1.3% decrease from two years prior and the smallest December to February sows farrowing since 2014 notwithstanding last year.

Economic Context: Navigating the Cost-Price Squeeze

Schulz emphasized that inventory reductions reflect broader economic headwinds facing pork producers. Total cost of production climbed 31% from 2020 to 2025, followed by an additional 3.0% increase in 2026. In 2027, another 6% increase is forecast, which if realized, would equate to a $91 per carcass hundredweight (cwt) cost for farrow to finish production. That would be the highest cost since 2023’s height of $97 per carcass cwt average. Non-feed variable cost inputs rose roughly 7.0% this year, headlined by a 35% surge in diesel fuel prices.

While an annual average farrow to finish profit of $2.50 per head is expected for 2026, early projections for 2027 using lean hog, corn, and soybean meal futures prices to represent the market’s expectations suggest potential losses averaging $22 per head as input costs remain elevated and softer hog prices are implied.

The September 2026 USDA Hogs and Pigs report confirms that there is no supply growth occurring in either the short or long term, with the national all hogs and pig inventory sitting over 4.6 million head below the peak September 2019 record level.

Bottom Line for Producers

Schulz encourages producers to stay informed of the economic situation and make use of available resources like these valuable USDA Hog and Pig reports to help guide decision-making.

Read more about the Hogs and Pigs report from Alex Wibholm, NPB chief operating officer.