USDA released a bullish Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report on Sept. 24. The report showed on Sept. 1:

  • Inventory of all hogs and pigs was 75.4 million head, down 4% from last year, but up 1% from June 1, 2021.
  • Breeding inventory, at 6.2 million head, down 2% from last year, and down slightly from June 1, 2021.
  • Market hog inventory, at 69.2 million head, down 4% from last year, and up 1% from June 2021.
  • The Dec. 2021 – Feb. 2022 farrowing intentions are up 1% from last year at nearly 3 million sows, down 3% from the same period two years ago.
Analysts offered their pre-report estimates prior to the official report publishing on Sept. 24. This chart shows the variance in the analyst averages (in black) and the actual results (in orange). Data indicates the results were bullish across all production statistics.

Hogs and Pigs Report Analysts

The National Pork Board hosted a webinar for pork producers following the report release and invited guest analysts to share insights and analysis of the report.

Guest analysts included:

  • Dr. Steve Meyer – Partners for Production Agriculture
  • Dr. Scott Brown – University of Missouri
  • Len Steiner – Steiner Consulting Group
  • John Nalivka – Sterling Marketing

Scott Brown

“The jump that we saw as we went through 2019 sticks out as much as the flatness we saw for several quarters after that. But 11.13 pigs per litter certainly puts us back on the long-term trend.”

Scott Brown, Director of Strategic Partnership for College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources and Associate Extension Professor at University of Missouri

Len Steiner

After comparing the Hogs and Pigs Report 30 years ago with a U.S.-only market, he says, “now we’ve got to figure out what the world’s going to do, and before today, we assumed with China’s hog prices coming down and their herd rebuilding after African swine fever, we were giving Americans more pork and less production. We are still working the numbers, but we have flipped; we are giving the American public less pork in 2022 than they consumed in 2021.”

Len Steiner, Founder and Principal of Steiner Consulting Group

John Nalivka

“Farrow-to-finish margins are hovering anywhere from $40 to $80 per head. An average of $45 margin against input costs with grain and lean carcass value.”

John Nalivka, Partner and Executive Vice President at Sterling Marketing

In addition to his initial report with numbers, Steve Meyer from Partners for Production Agriculture shared breakeven costs are in the upper $70 range this year but may lower in 2022. 

Watch Full Webinar Recording

The views expressed in this webinar by our invited guests are theirs and not those of the National Pork Board. The National Pork Board does not advocate or endorse any particular production or marketing direction.