U.S. Pork Supply Outlook: Hog Slaughter, Weights and Price Trends Heading Into the Holidays

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Supply Situation

USDA Statistics Office has stopped reporting official figures for hog slaughter and weights, but for now we can still get a general idea based on preliminary estimates provided daily by the Agricultural Marketing Service. Slaughter last week was estimated at 2.588 million head, about 11,000 head higher than the week before but still slightly under last year’s levels. In the last four weeks, hog slaughter has totaled 10.3 million head, 0.5% lower than a year ago.

Even though overall slaughter is running slightly below last year, the weekly pork supply is significantly higher than during the summer months—no surprise, as both slaughter and weights typically move higher in the fall. Since mid-September, hog slaughter has been hovering near 2.6 million head, compared with June, July, and August when slaughter consistently ran below 2.4 million. The average dressed weight of hogs coming to market has also increased notably, from under 210 pounds in late July and August to near 216 pounds currently. The combined increase in slaughter and weights implies a roughly 12% rise in supply from summer to fall, and we think supply will continue to increase in the coming weeks. Weekly slaughter should remain around 2.6 million head through early December, with the only exception being the week of Thanksgiving. Cooler temperatures and access to new-crop corn will help hogs gain weight more quickly, and because producer margins remain positive, marketing has not been particularly aggressive. This could allow weights to climb further into November.

Product Markets Lower Into the Holidays

With more supply in the pipeline, pork prices are expected to drift lower through November and December. The item most affected by the supply recovery has been bellies. For much of the summer, demand outpaced supply, pushing prices well above last year. Since mid-September, however, the belly primal value has fallen about 25%, consistent with the typical seasonal downturn at this time of year. Both last year and in 2022, belly prices saw a brief improvement in late October and early November as processors covered holiday orders, but those recoveries were short-lived. Seasonal softness in QSR sales, combined with larger overall production, usually leads to lower belly prices by year-end.

As for fresh pork, trends are mixed. Loin prices continue to follow seasonal patterns, with the primal value expected to be down about 10% from current levels by late November. Trim prices have been relatively resilient, but growing supply is starting to weigh on the market. Fat trim could see a 25% pullback by late November, while lean trim may be down 10–12% during the same period.

Export, Cold Storage Data in Limbo

In the past we have relied on weekly export data to get insight on sales to Mexico and the potential impact this might have on product availability and pricing for hams. USDA has suspended reporting on this, with no timeline when it will resume. Similarly, the survey of cold storage warehouses may not be published this month, depending on how long the government shutdown continues. In 2013, when government shutdown lasted three weeks, the results of both the cold storage and cattle on feed surveys were released at the end of the month. But should this shutdown continue past that, it is uncertain if the survey results will be published. USDA statistics on sow slaughter and monthly production data have also been suspended and for the moment we continue to rely on preliminary data, which inherently are less reliable, further clouding the supply picture.

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Forecasts