Steiner and Company produces the Profit Maximizer report on behalf of National Pork Board based on information we believe is accurate and reliable. However neither NPB nor Steiner and Company warrants or guarantees the accuracy of or accepts any liability for the data, opinions or recommendations expressed.

Highlights

  • Pork supply continues to fall short of estimates, supporting pork prices, especially for raw material used in processed items. Hams, bellies, and trim are all up double digits from last year as short-bought buyers scramble for spot market product.
  • Ham prices have surged as expected. Processors sold nearly 37,000 mt (metric tons) of pork to Mexico in the second half of August, and combined with short production weeks, this has tightened spot availability. Fall ham demand will also be supported by record-high prices for competing deli items, with turkey breast and beef inside rounds both near all-time highs.
  • Pork trim, particularly fat trim, remains scarce due to reduced slaughter. Slaughter is projected to climb above 2.5M head per week by late September, which should ease some pressure, but prices will stay well above last year. Expensive beef trim is further underpinning pork trim values.
  • Caution for producers: hog weights have turned around and moving higher. The risk is always that producers fall behind in marketings and this pressures prices into the fall.

Full Report

Market Landscape

Steady to firm. Spot availability is limited due to the short production week and uncertainty about the slaughter outlook the rest of September. Processors remain short and forced to pay up. Spec funds have added to their net long position, which is currently at 120k contracts. There is plenty of talk in the market that high prices will force consumers to trade down, which likely continues to fuel some of the spec activity. Primarily, however, we think the bullish tone is driven by the gap between the supply that was expected to be available and what is showing up in the market each week.

Supply Situation

Hog slaughter last week was 2.319 million head, not surprising as plants were closed for Labor Day. Saturday slaughter at 382k head was about 10k head less than the same holiday shortened week last year. Slaughter has been lower than a year ago starting in May and it appears that will be again the case next week. The numbers that have come to market during Jun-Aug are well below what the Dec-Feb pig crop indicated. We do not have the August slaughter figures yet but, based on the numbers reported, we could see monthly slaughter down 6-7% vs. a year ago. There was one less marketing day in August 2025 but even when adjusting for this slaughter was down 2.8%.

Slaughter for the entire Jun-Aug period is estimated at 30.5 million head, about 1 million head (-3.2%) lower than the same quarter a year ago. By comparison, the Dec-Feb pig crop suggested only a 0.2% decline vs. the previous year. When the September ‘Hogs and Pigs’ report is published (September 25), USDA will go back and revise the previously reported pig crop based on the slaughter figures. USDA revised down its Sep-Nov pig crop by 363k head and we expect to see an even bigger revision for Dec-Feb. The shortfall in slaughter has been further compounded by the decline in hog carcass weights, which have been down about 0.5% during this period.

Price Trend

Processing items, which are largely contracted on some type of formula basis, have been impacted the most by the shortfall in supply. With less meat available, spot buyers have been forced to chase the market. One example of this is the sharp increase in the price of 42CL, which in some cases has surpassed the price of 72CL pork. Belly prices have also been very firm, trading in a 180-200 range in the last three months. Belly prices are expected to see some downward pressure as slaughter is expected to steadily increase. Last year, weekly slaughter in the three full production weeks of September was 2.55 million head/week. If slaughter continues to run 3% or more under last year (recent trend), then a slaughter of 2.47 million could keep bellies in the mid-170s. Compare this with the Mar-May pig crop that suggested a 1.3% increase vs. a year ago. Hence market now opting to discount the June survey and price a tighter supply.

Fresh pork performance has been mixed. Loin primal value during the three month period was just 1.2% higher than a year ago, suggesting lackluster demand. Will demand improve in the fall considering high beef prices? We think so and it is reflected in our projections. Other items were up, with picnics +19%, rib prices + 15% and butt prices + 10% y/y.

As for producers, they would do well to keep an eye on average weights. USDA pegged hog weights for last week at 209 pounds vs. 212 a year ago. We think this number is wrong. USDA waits to get actual weight figures when the actual slaughter figures are reported so it uses a moving average to calculate. This is ok most of the time but when there is a reversal, the moving average can be off by quite a bit. We think weights last week were higher than a year ago. This is especially true for weights of producer-owned barrows and gilts, which last week averaged around 212.5 pounds, 0.6% higher than the same period a year ago. Low feed costs and robust demand for hogs likely has incentivized producers to hold on to their hogs. There’s no rush to sell hogs now, also reflected in the fact that fewer hogs are scheduled for slaughter this week. The risk is that delays in marketings compound over time. The time to think about staying current is now, not in October.

Price Chart

Forecasts

Steiner Consulting Group produces the National Pork Board newsletter based on information we believe is accurate and reliable. However, neither NPB nor Steiner and Company warrants or guarantees the accuracy of or accepts any liability for the data, opinions or recommendations expressed.