Webinar Recording

By the Numbers: March 2026 Data Summary 

Hosted by Montana pork producer and National Pork Board member John Rauser, this webinar features an in-depth analysis by Lee Schulz, Chief Economist at Ever.Ag. Reviewing the March 1, 2026, data, Schulz noted that the total U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs sat at 74.32 million head, a slight 0.4% increase from the March 1, 2025, level. One of the most notable shifts, however, was in the breeding herd. The breeding herd contracted to 5.89 million head, a 1.5% decrease from a year ago. According to Schulz, this marks the smallest March 1 U.S. breeding herd since 2014. Meanwhile, the total market hog inventory saw a modest bump, up 0.6% from 2025 to reach 68.43 million head.

Record Productivity Offsets a Smaller Breeding Herd 

Despite the shrinking breeding herd, last quarter’s pig crop managed to grow due to large gains in on-farm productivity. Sows farrowing during the December 2025 through February 2026 period fell by 1.5% year-over-year to 2.79 million litters, which was a surprise compared to pre-report analysts’ expectations. However, this decline was entirely offset by a record-setting litter rate for the quarter. Producers saved an average of 11.90 pigs per litter during the quarter, a 2.1% increase from the previous year. This surge in productivity pushed the December 2025 through February 2026 pig crop to 33.18 million head, a 0.6% year-over-year increase.

Market Hog Inventories Signal Tighter Than Expected Summer Supplies 

When breaking down the market hog inventory by weight class, Schulz noted several surprises that provide clues about upcoming slaughter volumes. The heaviest hogs (180 pounds and over) were up 2.5%, which Schulz said largely aligns with the 2.2% increase in federally inspected hog slaughter since the beginning of March.

Conversely, the lighter weight market hog categories came in much smaller than analysts anticipated. Hogs weighing 50-119 pounds (anticipated slaughter from mid-May through June 2026) were up just 0.1% compared to year ago. Pigs under 50 pounds (slated for July and August 2026 slaughter) increased by only 0.2%.

The smaller breeding herd will restrain supply growth for the fall and winter. According to Schulz, this is further supported by March-May 2026 sows farrowing intentions that are up only 0.1% year-over-year while June-August 2026 intentions are down 2.1%.

Economic Outlook and Producer Profitability 

While summarizing the market’s trajectory, Schulz emphasized that producers are slowly seeing improvements in long-run profitability as balance sheets are still healing from the heavy losses experienced in 2023 and early 2024. Cost of production remains elevated—roughly 31% higher in 2025 than it was in 2020—but forecasts suggest farrow-to-finish producers could see an average annual profit margin of around $15 per head in 2026. Ultimately, the report indicates that overall supplies remain very close to a year ago, reflecting a market that is neither shrinking significantly nor expanding rapidly.