Pork Checkoff Industry News

Plenty of conversation in the market about producers suffering deep losses and looking to liquidate sows. IA State model shows average loss of $34/head in Q1.

April 24, 2023 - There has been little movement in the pork market as supply continues to outpace earlier estimates and market participants are now pricing a much weaker demand environment for the summer.

With little improvement in the spot pork market, hog futures continue to slump. But risks are increasing that the market has overshot its mark and prices may snap back.

Lean hog futures have declined by more than 10% in the last few days due to ongoing demand uncertainty this spring.

The pork market continues to trade sideways on ample supply and, more importantly, a weaker than expected demand across a range of items.

Despite 2% decline in slaughter anticipated by the USDA, pork supply coming to market continues to be far higher that expected.

Hog slaughter was near 2.7 million head last week as producers sought to schedule hogs that were backed up due to winter storms and holidays. Slaughter is expected to be lower this coming week, in part because some plants will be dark on Monday for MLK holiday.

USDA hog inventory survey suggests that hog slaughter will be down 2% y/y through May, but then increase about 1% to 1.5% for the summer months. The increase in the breeding herd and more pigs per litter should increase supplies in the second half of 2023.