Pork Checkoff Industry News

Weather disruptions resulted in lower slaughter early last week. However, with supply expected to recover this coming week, prices came under significant pressure last Thursday and Friday.

Ham prices have rocketed higher as market was once again reminded of the seasonality of supply during this time of year. Big orders to Mexico and other orders at the end of June, lower slaughter and processors returning to full production have resulted in a very tight spot market. Sharply higher prices in US and Mexico may impact sales in August, however.

Wholesale pork prices showed some improvement towards the end of the week, mostly due to sharply higher ham prices. Demand from Mexico has been better than expected as hog values there continue to trade well above U.S. equivalent.

USDA inventory survey painted a picture of ample supply in the near term but lower production expected this winter and next spring.

Hog futures turned higher at the end of last week as belly prices rebounded and speculation that cutout could start to see some support going into the 4th of July holiday and a 4-day weekend.

Hog futures remain under pressure on uncertainty about outlook of processing items (hams, bellies, trim) this summer. Belly market appears to have more risk given slowdown in foodservice sales. Lack of frozen inventory continues to impact export markets, however.

USDA forecasts a modest decline in per capita availability in 2025 but still near the long run average of the last 15 years.

Higher pork exports in Q1 resulted in a 1.7% decline in domestic availability despite higher slaughter/production.

Hog slaughter has been running above year ago levels in the last two weeks but since early March slaughter has been about the same as last year while weights have been lower, resulting in less pork available in the spot market.

The quarterly survey of hog operations suggests that pork supply in 2024 will be modestly higher than in 2023. The breeding herd inventory is down 2% from a year ago but the reduction has been more than offset by productivity gains.