Pork Checkoff Industry News

Hog futures remain under pressure on uncertainty about outlook of processing items (hams, bellies, trim) this summer. Belly market appears to have more risk given slowdown in foodservice sales. Lack of frozen inventory continues to impact export markets, however.

USDA forecasts a modest decline in per capita availability in 2025 but still near the long run average of the last 15 years.

Higher pork exports in Q1 resulted in a 1.7% decline in domestic availability despite higher slaughter/production.

Hog slaughter has been running above year ago levels in the last two weeks but since early March slaughter has been about the same as last year while weights have been lower, resulting in less pork available in the spot market.

The quarterly survey of hog operations suggests that pork supply in 2024 will be modestly higher than in 2023. The breeding herd inventory is down 2% from a year ago but the reduction has been more than offset by productivity gains.

Cold storage report bullish, with pork inventories down in February vs. previous month despite increase in production. Total inventory at the end of February was down 12% from a year ago.

Hog supplies expected to be higher y/y through spring and early summer, but supply risk is skewed to the downside considering cuts to the breeding herd and uncertainty about productivity growth going forward.

Supply of pork in cold storage at the end of January was 10% lower than a year ago and like the tight inventory situation we experienced in 2021 and 2022.

Pork supply has recovered, with slaughter over 2.6M consistently in the last four weeks. Since December 1 slaughter is up by more than 3% y/y, double the rate of increase indicated by the inventory survey.

In the last four weeks hog slaughter is down 2.3% lower than a year ago, and that’s after a 2.7M week last week. Spot supply has been tight following holiday and winter weather disruptions and it will take some time for it to recover.