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Modest Pork Supply Growth Expected In 2026

The results of the ‘Hogs and Pigs’ survey will be published on Thursday. Expectations are for a very modest increase in supply this winter following with some supply expansion next spring and summer.

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Pork Supply Continues to Fall Short of Estimates, Supporting Pork Prices

Pork supply continues to fall short of estimates, supporting pork prices, especially for raw material used in processed items. Hams, bellies, and trim are all up double digits from last year as short-bought buyers scramble for spot market product.

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Fresh Pork is Competitive With Beef And Chicken and Expected to be Even More so in The Fall

With Labor Day weekend coming up, there will be some volatility both in terms of pricing and supply. Hog slaughter is expected to quickly climb above 2.5M head/week by mid September. This should help ease some of the tight supply, especially trim.

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Tight Supply Persists, Helps Underpin Processing Items and Overall Cutout

Hog supply continues to fall well short of expectations. Based on the June USDA survey, slaughter last week should have been 0.5% above last year. Instead, in the last four weeks slaughter has averaged 3.5% vs. a year ago.

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Lower Slaughter, Freezer Stocks Underpin Pork Prices in the Near Term

Hog slaughter in the four weeks ending July 26 was 3.7% lower than a year ago, far lower than expectations based on the July hog survey. Additionally, USDA has revised lower some of its initial slaughter estimates.

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Processing Items Continue to Dictate Market Direction

U.S. pork market has been quite volatile, largely due to the impact of the long holiday weekend on supply but also prospects of higher U.S. tariffs and potential retaliation.

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Pork Supply Outlook Following the June USDA Hog Survey

The USDA ‘Hogs and Pigs’ report noted that supplies later in the summer and into the fall may start to trend above year ago levels. If true, this should help temper prices as supply seasonally start to improve.

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Seasonal Trends Back in Focus

Slaughter improved last week but was still under 2.4M head. Several weeks of limited slaughter have taken a toll, resulting in tight spot supplies and sharply higher prices.

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New Campaign to Bolster Pork Demand focusing on Taste

A new marketing campaign looks to focus consumer’s attention on a key pork attribute: taste.

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Pork Values Trending Seasonally Higher

Hog slaughter was slightly lower than expected last week and two short production weeks will follow due to the upcoming long holiday weekend.

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