Pork Checkoff Industry News

Pork supply is currently on the upswing, consistent with the seasonal trend for this time of year. While official USDA data is missing, preliminary estimates put slaughter at near 2.9 million head per week, just shy of last year’s levels.

Pork trim prices were counter seasonally higher in the previous three weeks but the increase in supply has finally started to catch up with this market. Strong demand should keep prices above year ago levels but prices in Nov/Dec are expected to be lower than current levels.

The results of the ‘Hogs and Pigs’ survey will be published on Thursday. Expectations are for a very modest increase in supply this winter following with some supply expansion next spring and summer.

Pork supply continues to fall short of estimates, supporting pork prices, especially for raw material used in processed items. Hams, bellies, and trim are all up double digits from last year as short-bought buyers scramble for spot market product.

With Labor Day weekend coming up, there will be some volatility both in terms of pricing and supply. Hog slaughter is expected to quickly climb above 2.5M head/week by mid September. This should help ease some of the tight supply, especially trim.

Hog supply continues to fall well short of expectations. Based on the June USDA survey, slaughter last week should have been 0.5% above last year. Instead, in the last four weeks slaughter has averaged 3.5% vs. a year ago.

Hog slaughter in the four weeks ending July 26 was 3.7% lower than a year ago, far lower than expectations based on the July hog survey. Additionally, USDA has revised lower some of its initial slaughter estimates.

U.S. pork market has been quite volatile, largely due to the impact of the long holiday weekend on supply but also prospects of higher U.S. tariffs and potential retaliation.

The USDA ‘Hogs and Pigs’ report noted that supplies later in the summer and into the fall may start to trend above year ago levels. If true, this should help temper prices as supply seasonally start to improve.

Slaughter improved last week but was still under 2.4M head. Several weeks of limited slaughter have taken a toll, resulting in tight spot supplies and sharply higher prices.